Sorry Homer, It Just Doesn't Add Up

Philadelphia Flyers General Manager Paul Holmgren recently said all the Flyers have to do in order to make the play-offs is be 15 or 16 games above .500 the rest of the season. I ran the numbers and that looks easier said than done.

Do the Math

The Flyers have played 35 games which leaves 47 games left in the season. Fifteen games above .500 would mean a record of 31 wins and just 16 losses the rest of the season. In other words, the Flyers need to win 2 of every 3 games from here until the end of the season.

Reality Check

The Flyers have won just 8 games and lost 23 games so far this season. They are in the midst of a 10 game losing streak. They are tied for the fewest goals scored in the league (83) and tied for the most goals given up (136). Their best player, Peter Forsberg, is like Cinderella looking for the perfect skates for his delicate feet. Their goaltenders are both banged up (yes, both of them).

So it's easy for Homer to just say all they have to do is be 15 games above .500 but the probability of it actually happening is very unlikely.